Without a 10-year move above 6% and the spreads widening, the math does not support 9% — even with a hawkish Fed
Could mortgage rates reach 9% over the next year? Cotality chief economist Selma Hepp raised that possibility as a worst-case scenario in a recent CNBC interview.
Reaching that level would likely require a substantial rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, along with a wider gap between Treasury yields and mortgage rates. That combination could emerge if conflict keeps oil prices and inflation elevated, the economy remains strong, the labor market shows little softening, and the Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive stance for longer.
While 9% mortgage rates are possible under those conditions, they represent a worst-case outcome rather than the expected path.